Robust consumer spending and business fixed investment, particularly AI-related capital expenditures, have driven Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates for Q3 2026 into the 3.7–5.0% range as of early October, supporting the 74% market-implied probability for growth at or above 3.0%. Q2 real GDP was revised upward to a 2.2% annualized pace, with recent retail sales rebounds and inventory rebuilding adding momentum despite a net exports drag. NY Fed nowcasts remain lower at 2.3%, highlighting uncertainty around trade and inventory swings ahead of the October 29 advance estimate. Traders price in this resilience as skin-in-the-game consensus amid solid labor market conditions and elevated Treasury yields.