Recent polling from sources including InsiderAdvantage and Trafalgar Group shows Republican Sen. Darline Graham and Democratic challenger Annie Andrews separated by just one to two points among likely voters, keeping implied probabilities for narrow Graham victories elevated while leaving room for an Andrews upset. The race tightened after Lindsey Graham’s July 2026 death prompted Darline Graham’s appointment and subsequent special-primary victory, amid some conservative voter hesitation and Andrews’ focus on affordability and turnout among younger and independent voters. A scheduled October 11 debate and final weeks of campaigning could shift margins, as could late shifts in turnout or third-party performance on November 3.