**Darline Graham Nordone holds an 85.7% implied probability of winning the Republican nomination in South Carolina’s special Senate primary runoff, reflecting her strong performance in the August 11 primary and advantages as the appointed incumbent.** Lindsey Graham’s death on July 11 triggered the compressed special election process under state law, with filing opening July 21. Nordone, appointed by Governor Henry McMaster to finish the term, topped the crowded August 11 field without securing a majority, advancing against U.S. Representative Ralph Norman (13.5%), who placed second. A runoff is scheduled for August 25. Nordone’s name recognition, family ties, and recent Senate service have consolidated support among Republican primary voters, while the short campaign window limited challengers’ ability to build broad name ID or organization. Norman and lower-probability candidates such as other listed congressional or statewide figures face structural disadvantages in turnout and fundraising. The market prices reflect traders’ assessment of these dynamics ahead of the runoff, with resolution tied to certified primary results.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডDarline Graham Nordone's market probability peaks at 92% ahead of runoff
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 92%15%
Market prices surged to 92% for Darline Graham Nordone as she solidified her position as the likely winner of the Republican nomination following endorsements and campaign momentum heading into the runoff.
Rep. Russell Fry endorses Darline Graham Nordone in Senate runoff
After finishing third in the special primary, Rep. Russell Fry endorsed Darline Graham Nordone in the runoff, consolidating support behind her and boosting her chances to win the Republican nomination.
Russell Fry endorses Darline Graham in runoff for South Carolina Senate seat
After finishing third in the special primary, Rep. Russell Fry endorsed Darline Graham Nordone in the runoff, potentially consolidating conservative support behind her.
Associated Press projects South Carolina Senate special primary to runoff
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 76%35%
The Associated Press projected that the August 11 special Republican primary would head to a runoff between Darline Graham and Ralph Norman, confirming the market's expectation of a runoff and solidifying Darline Graham's frontrunner status.
Market prices reflect Darline Graham Nordone as leading candidate after primary
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 82%9%
Following the primary, market prices surged for Darline Graham Nordone, reflecting her frontrunner status going into the runoff against Ralph Norman, whose market price also remained significant.
South Carolina special Republican primary held; Darline Graham and Ralph Norman advance to runoff
The special primary election took place with no candidate securing a majority, leading to a runoff between Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman. This event caused a major market shift favoring these two candidates.
South Carolina holds special Republican primary for U.S. Senate seat
South Carolina voters participated in the special Republican primary to select the party's nominee for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Lindsey Graham's death. Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman advanced to a runoff as no candidate secured a majority.
Special Republican primary held to select nominee for Lindsey Graham's seat
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 77%31%
South Carolina held a special Republican primary on August 11, 2026, to select the party's nominee for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Lindsey Graham's death. The primary featured a crowded field including Darline Graham Nordone, Ralph Norman, Russell Fry, Mark Sanford, and Mark Lynch. Darline Graham Nordone led the race, benefiting from her appointment and Trump's endorsement, with other candidates trailing.
Darline Graham and Ralph Norman advance to runoff in South Carolina Senate special primary
In the August 11 special Republican primary, Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman secured the top two spots, advancing to a runoff election scheduled for August 25. This outcome reflected the competitive nature of the race and the divided support among Republican voters.
Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman advance to runoff in South Carolina special Republican primary
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 86%13%
No candidate won a majority in the August 11 special primary, leading to a runoff between Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman, confirming market expectations and solidifying their front-runner status.
Russell Fry and Mark Sanford fail to advance in South Carolina special Republican primary
Russell Fry plunges to 0%45%
Despite early campaign efforts, both Rep. Russell Fry and former Governor Mark Sanford failed to secure enough votes to advance past the August 11 special Republican primary, effectively ending their bids for the Senate nomination.
Darline Graham and Ralph Norman advance to runoff in South Carolina special Republican primary
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 83%10%
In the August 11 special Republican primary, Darline Graham Nordone led the field but did not secure a majority, with Ralph Norman finishing second. This result triggered a runoff election between the two candidates, setting the stage for the final nomination decision.
South Carolina special Republican Senate primary held; no candidate wins majority
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 83%79%
The special primary election took place with Darline Graham emerging as the top vote-getter but failing to secure a majority, leading to a runoff with Ralph Norman. This result caused a major market shift favoring Darline Graham's chances of winning the nomination.
Ralph Norman makes final campaign push before South Carolina Senate special primary
Ralph Norman jumps to 31%6%
Ralph Norman held a final campaign event with supporters including U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace, urging voter turnout and emphasizing his congressional record, which helped solidify his position as a runoff contender.
Russell Fry campaigns at candidate event ahead of special primary
Russell Fry jumps to 32%6%
Rep. Russell Fry participated in a candidate event in Florence, South Carolina, aiming to boost his profile and voter support in the special primary.
Republican candidates debate ahead of South Carolina special primary
Several Republican candidates, including Darline Graham Nordone, Ralph Norman, Russell Fry, Mark Sanford, and Mark Lynch, participated in a debate, providing voters with insights into their platforms and influencing voter sentiment ahead of the primary.
Mark Lynch interviewed about his Senate campaign and prospects
Mark Lynch jumps to 62%8%
Mark Lynch gave an interview discussing his campaign strategy and challenges in the special primary, which influenced market perceptions of his viability.
Mark Lynch campaigns actively ahead of South Carolina Senate special primary
Mark Lynch dips to 0%3%
Mark Lynch held campaign events and interviews to boost his profile ahead of the special primary, though polling suggested he was trailing the frontrunners, impacting his market price downward.
Early voting begins for South Carolina special Republican Senate primary
Early voting started for the special Republican primary election to select the nominee to replace Lindsey Graham, intensifying campaign efforts and voter engagement ahead of the August 11 primary date.
Mark Lynch campaigns ahead of South Carolina special GOP primary
Mark Lynch surges to 80%17%
Mark Lynch actively campaigned in Lexington, South Carolina, ahead of the special primary, attempting to increase voter support and market confidence.
Candidate filing period closes for South Carolina special Senate primary
The one-week candidate filing period for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham closed, finalizing the crowded field of candidates including Darline Graham Nordone, Ralph Norman, Mark Sanford, Russell Fry, and Mark Lynch.
Candidate filing deadline closes for South Carolina special Senate primary
The filing deadline for the special Republican primary closed, finalizing the candidate list and allowing campaigns to focus on the August 11 primary. This event stabilized market expectations ahead of the vote.
Darline Graham Nordone files to run for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 73%13%
Interim Senator Darline Graham Nordone officially filed to run in the special primary, solidifying her candidacy and boosting her market position.
Nancy Mace announces she will not run for Senate seat
Nancy Mace plunges to 0%46%
Rep. Nancy Mace announced she would not run in the special election to replace Lindsey Graham, citing unfinished business and focusing on justice issues. She later endorsed Ralph Norman in the race.
Darline Graham Nordone files paperwork to run in special primary
Darline Graham Nordone rises to 74%1%
Darline Graham Nordone formally submitted her paperwork to run in the special Republican primary, confirming her candidacy and prompting market confidence in her chances to win the nomination.
Mark Sanford announces run for South Carolina Senate special primary
Mark Sanford plunges to 0%50%
Former South Carolina Governor and U.S. Representative Mark Sanford announced his candidacy for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham, emphasizing fiscal responsibility and national debt concerns. His entry added a notable name to the race but did not translate into sustained market support.
Mark Sanford enters South Carolina Senate special primary race
Mark Sanford plunges to 5%45%
Former South Carolina Governor and U.S. Representative Mark Sanford announced his candidacy for the special Republican primary to fill Lindsey Graham's Senate seat, focusing on fiscal responsibility and combating the national debt.
Mark Sanford announces candidacy for South Carolina Senate special election
Mark Sanford plunges to 2%48%
Former South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford announced his run for the Senate seat, focusing on fiscal responsibility and national debt concerns. His entry added to the crowded field but his market probability remained low, reflecting limited impact on frontrunners.
Darline Graham Nordone announces she will run for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 73%7%
After being appointed interim senator, Darline Graham Nordone officially announced her candidacy for a full term in the special Republican primary, solidifying her position as a frontrunner with Trump's endorsement.
Nancy Mace endorses Ralph Norman, declines Senate run
Ralph Norman dips to 18%2%
Rep. Nancy Mace decided not to run for the Senate seat and instead endorsed Ralph Norman, breaking from Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham, which influenced market dynamics by consolidating conservative support behind Norman.
Russell Fry announces bid for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Russell Fry jumps to 56%11%
U.S. Rep. Russell Fry entered the crowded special primary race, adding another prominent candidate and influencing the distribution of support among GOP contenders.
Donald Trump endorses Darline Graham Nordone for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 81%18%
President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Darline Graham Nordone to run for a full term in the U.S. Senate, urging her to run for the seat and lending significant weight to her candidacy in the special primary.
Rep. Russell Fry announces bid for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Russell Fry plunges to 22%23%
Rep. Russell Fry entered the crowded Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham, adding to the competitive field. Fry was reportedly endorsed by Trump to run, which initially boosted his profile, but his support fluctuated as the race progressed.
Nancy Mace decides against running for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Nancy Mace plunges to 0%46%
Rep. Nancy Mace announced she would not run in the special election to replace Lindsey Graham, citing unfinished business and focusing on other priorities. Her withdrawal clarified the Republican field and led her to endorse Ralph Norman.
Darline Graham Nordone announces run for full Senate term with Trump's endorsement
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 80%11%
Darline Graham Nordone announced her candidacy for a full term in the U.S. Senate, receiving President Donald Trump's complete and total endorsement. This endorsement significantly boosted her profile and market position in the special Republican primary.
Russell Fry announces candidacy for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Russell Fry plunges to 14%31%
U.S. Representative Russell Fry announced his run for the Senate seat, joining the crowded field and signaling a competitive primary. His entry affected market dynamics, initially holding a moderate price before declining.
Nancy Mace announces she will not run for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Nancy Mace plunges to 0%46%
Rep. Nancy Mace decided against entering the special primary, narrowing the field and impacting her market price which dropped to zero.
Mark Lynch renews Senate campaign following Lindsey Graham's death
Mark Lynch plunges to 3%42%
Mark Lynch, who challenged Lindsey Graham in the June primary, re-entered the race for the special Republican primary triggered by Graham’s death, emphasizing conservative leadership and increasing his visibility in the race.
Darline Graham Nordone announces candidacy for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone rises to 72%4%
Darline Graham Nordone announced she would run for a full six-year Senate term in the special Republican primary, seeking to continue her late brother's legacy. This announcement solidified her position as a major candidate in the race.
Russell Fry enters South Carolina Senate race
Russell Fry drops to 38%7%
U.S. Representative Russell Fry announced his candidacy for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham. Fry positioned himself as a conservative MAGA candidate and received President Trump's reported encouragement to run.
Rep. Russell Fry announces candidacy for South Carolina Senate seat
Russell Fry surges to 62%48%
U.S. Representative Russell Fry announced his bid for the Senate seat left vacant by Lindsey Graham's death, entering a crowded Republican primary field. His entry initially boosted his market position as a strong challenger.
Rep. Nancy Mace decides against running for Senate seat
Nancy Mace plunges to 0%46%
Rep. Nancy Mace announced she would not run in the special election to replace Lindsey Graham, citing unfinished business and focusing on other priorities, which led to a sharp drop in her market price and endorsement of Ralph Norman.
Darline Graham Nordone announces she will run for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 81%15%
After being appointed to fill her late brother's seat, Darline Graham Nordone announced her candidacy for a full term in the special Republican primary, solidifying her position as a leading candidate with Trump's endorsement.
President Trump endorses Darline Graham in South Carolina Senate special primary
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 68%53%
Former President Donald Trump endorsed Darline Graham, boosting her profile and support among Republican voters in South Carolina. This endorsement was significant given Trump's influence in the state GOP and helped propel her polling numbers.
Ralph Norman announces run for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat despite Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham
Ralph Norman plunges to 24%21%
Congressman Ralph Norman entered the special primary race despite President Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham, gaining endorsements from Senators Mike Lee and Rick Scott, which affected his market position.
Rep. Ralph Norman announces run for South Carolina Senate seat
Ralph Norman plunges to 14%31%
Rep. Ralph Norman declared his candidacy for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham, despite lacking Trump's endorsement, positioning himself as a conservative alternative and gaining support from other GOP figures.
Ralph Norman announces Senate bid despite Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham
Ralph Norman plunges to 18%27%
Congressman Ralph Norman declared his candidacy for the Senate seat, running against Trump-endorsed Darline Graham Nordone. He positioned himself as a conservative fighter with endorsements from Senators Mike Lee and Rick Scott, challenging the establishment choice.
Ralph Norman announces candidacy for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat despite Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham
Ralph Norman plunges to 18%27%
Rep. Ralph Norman declared his run for the Senate seat, challenging the Trump-backed Darline Graham, which intensified the Republican primary competition and affected market dynamics.
Ralph Norman announces Senate run despite Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham
Ralph Norman drops to 31%14%
Congressman Ralph Norman announced his candidacy for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham, despite President Donald Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham Nordone. Norman received endorsements from Senators Rick Scott and Mike Lee, positioning him as a strong conservative contender.
President Donald Trump endorses Darline Graham Nordone for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 69%51%
President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Darline Graham Nordone to run for a full term in the special Republican primary, boosting her profile and market position significantly. Trump's endorsement is influential in South Carolina GOP politics and shifted support towards Nordone.
Mark Lynch renews Senate campaign following Lindsey Graham's death
Mark Lynch jumps to 14%10%
Mark Lynch, who challenged Lindsey Graham in the June primary, announced he would re-enter the race for the special Republican primary triggered by Graham's death, increasing his visibility and market support.
Darline Graham Nordone sworn in as U.S. Senator
Darline Graham Nordone rises to 70%2%
Darline Graham Nordone was sworn in on July 14, 2026, officially becoming the junior U.S. Senator from South Carolina. Her swearing-in followed her appointment and was a significant step in her campaign to retain the seat in the special primary.
Donald Trump endorses Darline Graham Nordone for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 69%53%
President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Darline Graham Nordone to run for a full term in the special Republican primary, significantly boosting her campaign and market position.
President Trump endorses Darline Graham Nordone for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 73%67%
President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Darline Graham Nordone to run for a full term in the special Republican primary, significantly boosting her campaign by aligning her with Trump's influential support base in South Carolina.
Governor McMaster appoints Darline Graham Nordone to fill late brother Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 66%60%
South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham Nordone, sister of the late Senator Lindsey Graham, to fill the vacant Senate seat. This appointment gave her incumbency advantage and significant name recognition, boosting her position in the special primary race.
Darline Graham Nordone appointed to fill Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 68%62%
South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham Nordone, sister of the late Lindsey Graham, to serve the remainder of his Senate term. This appointment made her the first woman to represent South Carolina in the U.S. Senate and positioned her as a key candidate in the upcoming special primary.
Governor Henry McMaster appoints Darline Graham Nordone to fill Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 60%54%
Following Lindsey Graham's death, South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster appointed his sister, Darline Graham Nordone, as interim U.S. Senator, giving her immediate incumbency and name recognition that boosted her position in the special primary race.
Governor appoints Darline Graham to fill Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 15%9%
Following Senator Lindsey Graham's death on July 11, 2026, Governor Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham, Lindsey Graham's sister, to serve the remainder of his term. This appointment gave her immediate incumbency status and increased her visibility ahead of the special primary.
South Carolina Governor appoints Darline Graham Nordone to fill Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 63%57%
Governor Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham Nordone, Lindsey Graham's sister, as interim U.S. Senator to serve the remainder of her brother's term, making her the first woman to represent South Carolina in the Senate. This appointment immediately positioned her as a key candidate in the upcoming special primary.
Nancy Mace considers Senate bid but ultimately declines
Nancy Mace plunges to 0%46%
Rep. Nancy Mace initially considered running for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat following his death and began polling her viability. However, she later announced she would not run, citing unfinished business and endorsing Ralph Norman instead, impacting the race dynamics.
Rep. Nancy Mace considers but ultimately declines to run for Senate seat
Nancy Mace plunges to 0%46%
Rep. Nancy Mace initially considered running for the Senate seat but announced she would not run, citing unfinished business and focusing on justice issues. She later endorsed Ralph Norman, influencing his support base and market position.
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