Trader consensus around a 94.5% implied probability that OpenAI will not retract its Navier-Stokes solution by year-end reflects the company's September 8, 2026, publication of an analytical proof and Lean formalization establishing finite-time singularity under smooth external force, satisfying Clay problem statements C and D. Despite an October 8 New Scientist report identifying a minor mismatch in Lemma 8.6 between the natural-language writeup and Lean code, OpenAI has confirmed awareness while asserting neither version is invalidated, and no independent verification has yet exposed a fatal error. The short remaining window to December 31, 2026, combined with the public, machine-checkable formalization and OpenAI's decision not to claim the Millennium Prize, reinforces market-implied odds. A retraction would require discovery of a substantive flaw through ongoing mathematician review or internal reassessment, scenarios traders currently view as low-probability given the absence of such findings to date.