Aaron Flint holds a 67.5% implied probability in the MT-01 House race on Polymarket, ahead of Sam Forstag at 33.5%, reflecting trader assessment of the open seat's Republican lean in a district that favored Donald Trump by double digits in 2024. Recent polling shows a statistical tie, with American Pulse giving Flint a narrow 46-45 edge and Democratic-leaning Impact Research showing Forstag ahead 47-44, while Cook Political Report rates the contest Lean Republican. Flint benefits from Trump's endorsement and Republican super PAC ad spending highlighting Forstag's prior lobbying work on taxes and local government issues. Forstag, a union smokejumper, has secured cross-party endorsements and leads in some Missoula-area samples, but the November 3 general election timeline and district fundamentals continue to anchor market pricing around the Republican nominee.