Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Iran's Supreme Leader in March 2026 following his father Ali Khamenei's death in late-February U.S.-Israeli strikes, during which Mojtaba reportedly sustained injuries. Since then, he has issued only written statements or messages read on state media and avoided any confirmed live or dated public appearances, prompting persistent speculation over his health, security amid ongoing conflict, and operational role. Iranian officials have cited assassination risks and the active U.S.-Iran tensions as reasons for the low profile. The most recent catalyst is state media's August 10 release of an undated video depicting him in a meeting, presented as a response to health rumors, though traders view it as insufficient to resolve markets requiring verifiable footage or in-person events. Resolution depends on future dated sightings before specific deadlines, with security concerns and regime messaging shaping the implied probabilities.