Current forecasts from GFS ensemble runs and Met Office guidance show a minimum temperature of 16°C at Paris-Le Bourget under mostly clear skies and moderate northwest winds that favor radiative cooling with limited boundary-layer mixing. This setup produces a tight cluster of overnight low projections around 16°C, slightly above the mid-September climatological average of 11–13°C, supporting the market's 95% implied probability for that outcome. High-pressure dominance and dry continental air have sustained these conditions through the past 48 hours. Resolution hinges on the official NOAA station reading, so late model shifts from increased cloud cover or wind changes could still nudge the low by 1–2°C if they materialize before dawn.