Trader consensus on Guangzhou's September 15 minimum clusters tightly around 24–26°C because official and ensemble forecasts from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international models show overnight lows near 25–26°C amid persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 80%, light southerly winds, and scattered showers or thunderstorms. These conditions limit radiational cooling and keep temperatures from falling sharply after daytime peaks of 32–34°C. Slight probability edges for 25–26°C versus 24°C reflect minor model differences in expected cloud thickness and timing of any clearing, while lower odds for 21°C or below align with the absence of strong cold-air advection or clear-sky conditions that would enable greater nocturnal drops in this subtropical setting. Updated observations tonight will resolve the outcome.