Israeli and Lebanese officials remain deadlocked over sequencing in the June 2026 US-brokered framework agreement, which links gradual Israeli withdrawals from southern Lebanon to verified Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese army deployment in designated pilot zones. Israeli forces continue operations and maintain positions south of the Blue Line, including recent movements near Hadatha, with military sources indicating no near-term pullback. US-mediated talks are scheduled to resume October 20 in Florida, shortly before Israeli elections, while Lebanese leaders insist on full withdrawal first and Hezbollah rejects disarmament without prior Israeli concessions. These stalled negotiations and persistent ground realities continue to shape assessments of when a sustained effective ceasefire, including a two-week pause in hostilities, could take hold.