Recent polling averages place Yashar, the centrist list led by former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot, in a narrow range of roughly 20–24 Knesset seats two weeks before the October 27 election, with individual surveys fluctuating between 20 and 23. This keeps probabilities tightly clustered around the 22–23 outcome as traders weigh the party’s consistent lead or near-tie with Likud against bloc arithmetic that leaves both the Netanyahu-aligned and opposition camps short of 61 seats. Campaign focus on national service, northern reconstruction, and security has sustained Yashar’s support while smaller lists hover near the 3.25 percent threshold, adding volatility. Late shifts in turnout or last-week developments could still widen or narrow the final tally within the current market distribution.