**Recent polling averages place United Torah Judaism (UTJ) at 7–8 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27, 2026 election, consistent with the market’s leading 67.5% probability on that range.** Multiple surveys from outlets including Channel 12, Channel 13, Maariv, and others over the past two weeks show the Ashkenazi haredi party holding steady in this band, with minor fluctuations between 7 and 8 mandates and no sustained movement toward higher or lower totals. Key factors include the party’s stable ultra-Orthodox voter base and limited volatility in national polling. On October 11, UTJ and Shas formalized a surplus vote-sharing agreement to pool remainder votes and maximize combined representation while pledging continued cooperation on religious issues. UTJ chairman Yaakov Asher also reiterated that the party will neither join nor support any government without prior passage of draft legislation exempting yeshiva students, a core priority that reinforces its bargaining position but has not shifted seat projections. These developments have kept expectations anchored in the 7–8 seat outcome observed across recent surveys, with traders assigning lower probability to 9–10 seats (17%) or fewer than 7 (11%). The election timeline leaves limited room for late swings that would alter this positioning.