Recent polling averages place Shas at roughly 7–8 seats two weeks before the October 27 Knesset election, aligning with the market’s tightest probabilities on 6–9 seats. The party, led by Aryeh Deri, has shown stability in surveys amid a broader contest between the Netanyahu-aligned bloc and opposition parties, both short of a majority. Key influences include Haredi voter turnout, ongoing debates over ultra-Orthodox military conscription following recent court rulings, and Shas’s list adjustments that added a reservist candidate to broaden appeal. Minor poll-to-poll variation between 7 and 10 seats keeps 8–9 and 6–7 ranges closely matched, with separation likely hinging on final turnout in religious communities and any late shifts in surplus-vote agreements or bloc positioning.