Recent polling averages place the Joint List (Hadash-Ta'al-Balad) in a narrow band of 7–8 seats ahead of the October 27 Knesset election, with individual surveys fluctuating between 7 and 9. The Supreme Court’s October 2 reversal of the Central Elections Committee ban cleared the path for participation, while leader Yousef Jabareen’s October statements offering conditional outside support to an anti-Netanyahu minority government have highlighted the list’s potential kingmaker role. Voter turnout in Arab communities, competition from the separate Ra’am list, and late shifts in surplus-vote agreements or bloc consolidation remain the main variables. This produces the current tight distribution across the 6–7 and 8–9 seat ranges, with outcomes hinging on final mobilization and threshold dynamics in a fragmented field.