Iceland’s August 29, 2026 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations delivered a decisive 52.84% “no” vote against 47.16% “yes,” with record 82.5% turnout. Traders assign 100% probability to the market resolving “no” because the official results are confirmed and the sitting coalition, led by Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir, has publicly committed to shelving the issue for the remainder of its term through 2028. Primary drivers include rural voters’ priority on retaining sovereign control of fisheries quotas, an urban-rural split, and skepticism that EEA membership already delivers sufficient single-market access without ceding authority. While a future government could reopen the question after the next election or pursue formal withdrawal of the dormant 2009 application, the current parliamentary and public mandate makes near-term reversal improbable.