Trader consensus on a 26°C high for Seoul/Incheon on September 14 reflects near-unanimous guidance from official meteorological models and observations, including GFS runs and Korea Meteorological Administration data showing peak afternoon temperatures reaching exactly that level under partly cloudy skies, northwest winds of 5–7 mph, and minimal precipitation risk. Current readings near 23–26°C align with this trajectory, consistent with September climatology of moderating highs after summer peaks. The implied probability near 100% captures the narrow uncertainty range in short-term forecasts, where small deviations in insolation or boundary-layer mixing could still shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Updated model runs or real-time station data from Incheon International Airport would be the key triggers capable of altering positioning before resolution.