Recent exit polls from the 2026 midterm elections show Republicans capturing 9 percent of the Black vote in House races, aligning closely with historical baselines of 8-12 percent in most federal contests. This outcome reflects sustained Democratic advantages among Black voters, driven by turnout patterns and issue priorities such as the economy and state of democracy, alongside a reversal of modest 2024 gains for Republican candidates. Trader consensus around the 8–9 percent range incorporates these verified results and longstanding demographic voting trends, while noting limited upside potential absent major shifts in candidate appeal or economic conditions. Uncertainties remain around precise final tallies or future cycles where policy developments could alter margins.