Olivier Faure’s position as Parti Socialiste first secretary and his late but decisive candidacy have anchored trader expectations for a second-place finish in the October 9-10 first round of the closed primary. With roughly 140,000 eligible voters drawn from PS members, Place Publique affiliates, and GRS participants, the electorate favors established party figures over outsiders, giving Faure organizational reach despite internal resistance to his preferred open format. Recent televised debates sharpened contrasts on purchasing power, EU policy, and alliances with La France Insoumise, yet none appear to have shifted momentum decisively toward Raphaël Glucksmann or Ségolène Royal. The resulting market pricing—Faure at 73 percent for second place, with Royal, Glucksmann, Maurel, and Guedj trailing far behind—reflects this structural advantage in a five-candidate field where a runoff remains likely.