**Incumbent Republican María Elvira Salazar holds a clear but narrowed edge in Florida’s 27th congressional district, where trader pricing reflects her fundraising dominance and incumbency alongside a more competitive environment than in prior cycles.** The Miami-Dade-based seat, with its large Hispanic electorate, saw Cook Political Report shift the rating to Lean Republican in late September after polls showed the race tightening from Salazar’s 20-point 2024 win. Recent surveys, including a Rodriguez-sponsored internal poll and a Democratic-backed Tulchin survey, placed the candidates near or within a point of each other, driven by Hispanic voter pushback against Trump administration immigration enforcement. Salazar’s substantial cash advantage and her public break with Trump on deportation policies have helped stabilize her position, while Democratic nominee Eliott Rodriguez benefits from local name recognition as a longtime Miami news anchor and DCCC support. The November 3 general election remains the key resolution date, with national midterm dynamics and turnout among Latino voters likely to influence the final margin.
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