Chicago leads the market at 61% implied probability due to its northern latitude and greater exposure to early-season Arctic air outbreaks compared to Detroit, New York City, or St. Louis. National Weather Service station data show typical first measurable snowfall (≥0.1 inch) dates clustered in mid-to-late November for Chicago and Detroit, later for the other two cities. A strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already positive and projected to intensify through winter per NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, tends to shift the jet stream and favor milder, less snowy conditions across the northern Midwest and Northeast, though individual lake-effect events can still produce early accumulations. The next CPC winter outlook update and any rapid ENSO shifts will be key near-term catalysts for trader reassessment.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডFirst snow of the 2026 season

Buffalo, NY by October 31
55%

Denver, CO by October 31
63%

Minneapolis, MN by October 31
59%

Salt Lake City, UT by October 31
53%

Boston, MA by November 15
60%

Buffalo, NY by November 15
92%

Chicago, IL by November 15
61%

Denver, CO by November 15
94%

Detroit, MI by November 15
90%

Indianapolis, IN by November 15
83%

Kansas City, MO by November 15
33%

Minneapolis, MN by November 15
88%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 15
58%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 15
87%

Boston, MA by November 30
93%

Buffalo, NY by November 30
94%

Chicago, IL by November 30
78%

Cincinnati, OH by November 30
83%

Dallas, TX by November 30
11%

Denver, CO by November 30
99%

Detroit, MI by November 30
89%

Indianapolis, IN by November 30
94%

Kansas City, MO by November 30
84%

Minneapolis, MN by November 30
93%

Nashville, TN by November 30
29%

New York City, NY by November 30
68%

Philadelphia, PA by November 30
18%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 30
77%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
89%

St. Louis, MO by November 30
75%

Washington, DC by November 30
44%
$7,447 Vol.

Buffalo, NY by October 31
55%

Denver, CO by October 31
63%

Minneapolis, MN by October 31
59%

Salt Lake City, UT by October 31
53%

Boston, MA by November 15
60%

Buffalo, NY by November 15
92%

Chicago, IL by November 15
61%

Denver, CO by November 15
94%

Detroit, MI by November 15
90%

Indianapolis, IN by November 15
83%

Kansas City, MO by November 15
33%

Minneapolis, MN by November 15
88%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 15
58%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 15
87%

Boston, MA by November 30
93%

Buffalo, NY by November 30
94%

Chicago, IL by November 30
78%

Cincinnati, OH by November 30
83%

Dallas, TX by November 30
11%

Denver, CO by November 30
99%

Detroit, MI by November 30
89%

Indianapolis, IN by November 30
94%

Kansas City, MO by November 30
84%

Minneapolis, MN by November 30
93%

Nashville, TN by November 30
29%

New York City, NY by November 30
68%

Philadelphia, PA by November 30
18%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 30
77%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
89%

St. Louis, MO by November 30
75%

Washington, DC by November 30
44%
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Sep 2, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
Chicago leads the market at 61% implied probability due to its northern latitude and greater exposure to early-season Arctic air outbreaks compared to Detroit, New York City, or St. Louis. National Weather Service station data show typical first measurable snowfall (≥0.1 inch) dates clustered in mid-to-late November for Chicago and Detroit, later for the other two cities. A strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already positive and projected to intensify through winter per NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, tends to shift the jet stream and favor milder, less snowy conditions across the northern Midwest and Northeast, though individual lake-effect events can still produce early accumulations. The next CPC winter outlook update and any rapid ENSO shifts will be key near-term catalysts for trader reassessment.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড


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