Mercedes leads the 2026 F1 Constructors’ Championship by 160 points over Ferrari after the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, with 538 points from 11 wins and consistent scoring from Kimi Antonelli and George Russell. The Silver Arrows’ W17 has delivered superior pace and power unit performance across most circuits, outpacing rivals even amid limited recent upgrades. Ferrari, McLaren, and Red Bull have introduced development packages without closing the gap meaningfully, leaving their combined totals well behind. With roughly eight rounds remaining, the market’s 98.4% implied probability for Mercedes reflects this sustained advantage in qualifying and race results. Only widespread reliability failures for Mercedes or an unprecedented late surge in pace and results from another team could realistically alter the outcome before the season finale.