The 87% market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point ECB rate hike at the June 10-11, 2026 meeting reflect the Governing Council’s hawkish pivot following its April 30 decision to hold the deposit facility rate at 2.00%. Soaring euro-area inflation driven by energy price spikes from Middle East tensions has pushed short-term inflation expectations higher, with professional forecasters now projecting 2.7% for 2026, while a resilient labor market raises risks of second-round effects. Officials signaled post-meeting that further tightening may be needed absent rapid de-escalation, aligning the market-implied path with data-dependent policy and leaving minimal room for cuts or larger moves. The June decision serves as the key near-term catalyst.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড25 bps Increase 87%
No change 13.1%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$348,931 Vol.
$348,931 Vol.
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
13%
25 bps Increase
87%
50+ bps increase
1%
25 bps Increase 87%
No change 13.1%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$348,931 Vol.
$348,931 Vol.
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$60,661 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$63,779 Vol.
<1%
No change
$73,624 Vol.
13%
25 bps Increase
$86,031 Vol.
87%
50+ bps increase
$64,834 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.The 87% market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point ECB rate hike at the June 10-11, 2026 meeting reflect the Governing Council’s hawkish pivot following its April 30 decision to hold the deposit facility rate at 2.00%. Soaring euro-area inflation driven by energy price spikes from Middle East tensions has pushed short-term inflation expectations higher, with professional forecasters now projecting 2.7% for 2026, while a resilient labor market raises risks of second-round effects. Officials signaled post-meeting that further tightening may be needed absent rapid de-escalation, aligning the market-implied path with data-dependent policy and leaving minimal room for cuts or larger moves. The June decision serves as the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
ভলিউম
$348,931শেষ তারিখ
Jun 11, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.The 87% market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point ECB rate hike at the June 10-11, 2026 meeting reflect the Governing Council’s hawkish pivot following its April 30 decision to hold the deposit facility rate at 2.00%. Soaring euro-area inflation driven by energy price spikes from Middle East tensions has pushed short-term inflation expectations higher, with professional forecasters now projecting 2.7% for 2026, while a resilient labor market raises risks of second-round effects. Officials signaled post-meeting that further tightening may be needed absent rapid de-escalation, aligning the market-implied path with data-dependent policy and leaving minimal room for cuts or larger moves. The June decision serves as the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
ভলিউম
$348,931শেষ তারিখ
Jun 11, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 87% market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point ECB rate hike at the June 10-11, 2026 meeting reflect the Governing Council’s hawkish pivot following its April 30 decision to hold the deposit facility rate at 2.00%. Soaring euro-area inflation driven by energy price spikes from Middle East tensions has pushed short-term inflation expectations higher, with professional forecasters now projecting 2.7% for 2026, while a resilient labor market raises risks of second-round effects. Officials signaled post-meeting that further tightening may be needed absent rapid de-escalation, aligning the market-implied path with data-dependent policy and leaving minimal room for cuts or larger moves. The June decision serves as the key near-term catalyst.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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