Recent August core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month—hotter than the 0.2% consensus—driven by a one-time telephone-services surge and firm services prices, keeping year-over-year core at 2.4%. Economists now project a moderation to 0.2% for September, citing mean-reversion in supercore services after the August spike, subdued shelter and used-vehicle contributions, and limited goods inflation pass-through despite elevated gasoline prices lifting the headline. Market-implied odds favoring 0.2% at 40.5% over 0.3% at 32.5% reflect this base-case cooling amid a softening labor backdrop, though upside risks from airfares, hotel rates, and rounding effects near the 0.20% threshold keep the distribution tight ahead of the October 14 release. Traders are pricing in probabilities consistent with the latest consensus forecasts rather than a continuation of August’s firm pace.