Recent alliance fractures and internal party positioning have kept the Colima state congress race fragmented ahead of the June 2027 vote for 25 seats. The October 2026 split between PVEM and Morena, driven by disagreements over candidate selection and coordination, has opened space for independent or alternative alignments, while Morena’s internal survey process selected Rosa María Bayardo as state coordinator. Early polling shows Morena-PT-PVEM coalitions leading statewide preferences, yet opposition parties including PAN, PRI, and MC retain viable paths through local organization and potential pacts. With campaigns months away and nine parties registered, trader consensus reflects high uncertainty over which bloc secures the most majority-relative or proportional seats. Scheduled INE and state electoral council activities through late 2026 could clarify alignments and shift implied probabilities.