**Canada's population growth has slowed sharply in 2026 due to federal immigration policy changes targeting non-permanent residents (NPRs).** Statistics Canada’s September 23, 2026, quarterly estimates placed the population at a record 41,798,407 on July 1, reflecting a modest 0.5% year-over-year increase of 189,425 people—the slowest July-to-July pace since 1915–1916. Growth in the second quarter was just +0.2%, driven primarily by permanent resident admissions (around 99,000 in Q2) and limited natural increase, offset by a net decline in NPRs of roughly 19,000 that quarter and 155,000 over the prior year. The government’s 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan and related measures have reduced temporary resident arrivals (students and workers) substantially—by roughly 40–60% in key categories compared with prior peaks—while stabilizing permanent resident targets near 380,000 annually. NPRs fell to 2.78 million (6.7% of the population) from a 2024 high above 7%, aligning with the explicit goal of lowering their share below 5% by the end of 2027. Earlier preliminary data suggesting outright quarterly declines were revised upward, confirming continued but minimal net growth through mid-2026. These developments have produced closely balanced trader expectations for the full calendar year. The policy-driven NPR outflow, combined with historically low overall growth rates, supports the slight majority probability assigned to a net population decrease by year-end, even as permanent inflows and births provide a partial counterbalance. No major new policy reversals or economic shocks have altered this trajectory in recent weeks.