SNSD holds an 84.5% implied probability of finishing second in Bosnia and Herzegovina’s state parliamentary election, reflecting preliminary results from the October 4 vote that place it behind SDA in overall seat and vote projections for the 42-member House of Representatives. SNSD secured strong support in Republika Srpska, consistent with its historical dominance in Serb-majority areas and recent entity-level polling, positioning it ahead of SDP BiH, HDZ BiH, and smaller lists. SDA’s lead at the national level aligns with its Federation performance, lowering its second-place odds to 12.8%. Lower probabilities for DF, NiP, SDS, and others track their more limited cross-entity reach under the proportional system. With counting ongoing and final certification expected by early November, trader consensus incorporates these verified tallies while noting potential minor shifts from remaining ballots.