The September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election produced confirmed vote shares that allocate the CDU roughly 33-34 seats under the state's personalized proportional system, including overhang and leveling mandates. The party fell to about 18.8 percent after losing nearly ten points from its 2023 result, reflecting voter dissatisfaction with the outgoing CDU-SPD coalition and limited momentum for new lead candidate Stefan Evers. Linke gains and AfD advances further compressed the CDU's share, locking its seat total well below prior levels. Final certification or minor adjustments to leveling seats remain the only realistic variables that could shift the count, though historical patterns indicate such changes rarely exceed a handful of mandates. Trader consensus therefore reflects the election outcome rather than ongoing polling uncertainty.