The Bank of Russia’s September 11 decision carries a strong trader consensus for no change at the current 14% key rate, reflecting recent inflation acceleration to 6.3% by end-August alongside the central bank’s shift to a neutral policy signal after its July cut. Persistent inflation expectations, steady lending growth, and risks from more expansionary fiscal policy have narrowed scope for further easing in the near term. Analysts largely project a hold, citing the need to monitor price dynamics and credit conditions before resuming cuts, consistent with the bank’s revised 2026 average rate forecast of 14.5–14.6%. A modest 25 basis point reduction remains possible but is viewed as less likely given the data.