The Bank of Russia’s decision to hold its key rate at 14% in September, following ten consecutive cuts since mid-2025, has anchored trader expectations for a similar pause at the October 23 meeting. Persistent price pressures, with underlying inflation accelerating to an annualized 5–6% amid temporary supply constraints in sectors such as oil refining and logistics, have outweighed moderate economic growth and prompted the central bank to prioritize flexibility. September consumer price data showing 6.35% year-over-year inflation, above the 4% target, reinforced caution, as did fiscal policy uncertainties ahead of budget updates. Governor Elvira Nabiullina’s recent comments on gradual easing in 2027 signal longer-term policy direction without altering the near-term bias toward stability, leaving limited room for an October cut or hike absent sharper data shifts.