Persistent Houthi attacks and a declared blockade targeting Saudi-linked tonnage have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed through late August 2026. Data from Kpler, Lloyd’s List Intelligence, and JMIC show daily averages fluctuating between roughly 24 and 38 vessels in the final weeks, with 72-hour rolling counts near 81 for 27–29 August implying about 27 per day. Elevated war-risk premiums, dark AIS transits, and selective rerouting around the Cape have constrained volumes well below pre-crisis norms of 60-plus daily, while limited safe-passage arrangements for certain Chinese and other flagged vessels have prevented a sharper collapse. Trader consensus reflected in the 68.5% probability on 25–29 aligns with these observed levels amid ongoing security risks.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
25-29 69%
<25 28.7%
35-39 2.9%
30-34 <1%
$38,669 Vol.
$38,669 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<25
29%
25-29
69%
30-34
<1%
35-39
3%
40+
<1%
25-29 69%
<25 28.7%
35-39 2.9%
30-34 <1%
$38,669 Vol.
$38,669 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<25
$7,815 Vol.
29%
25-29
$9,898 Vol.
69%
30-34
$8,939 Vol.
<1%
35-39
$5,459 Vol.
3%
40+
$6,558 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Persistent Houthi attacks and a declared blockade targeting Saudi-linked tonnage have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed through late August 2026. Data from Kpler, Lloyd’s List Intelligence, and JMIC show daily averages fluctuating between roughly 24 and 38 vessels in the final weeks, with 72-hour rolling counts near 81 for 27–29 August implying about 27 per day. Elevated war-risk premiums, dark AIS transits, and selective rerouting around the Cape have constrained volumes well below pre-crisis norms of 60-plus daily, while limited safe-passage arrangements for certain Chinese and other flagged vessels have prevented a sharper collapse. Trader consensus reflected in the 68.5% probability on 25–29 aligns with these observed levels amid ongoing security risks.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
ভলিউম
$38,669শেষ তারিখ
Aug 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
IMF PortWatchরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Persistent Houthi attacks and a declared blockade targeting Saudi-linked tonnage have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed through late August 2026. Data from Kpler, Lloyd’s List Intelligence, and JMIC show daily averages fluctuating between roughly 24 and 38 vessels in the final weeks, with 72-hour rolling counts near 81 for 27–29 August implying about 27 per day. Elevated war-risk premiums, dark AIS transits, and selective rerouting around the Cape have constrained volumes well below pre-crisis norms of 60-plus daily, while limited safe-passage arrangements for certain Chinese and other flagged vessels have prevented a sharper collapse. Trader consensus reflected in the 68.5% probability on 25–29 aligns with these observed levels amid ongoing security risks.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
ভলিউম
$38,669শেষ তারিখ
Aug 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
IMF PortWatchরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...Persistent Houthi attacks and a declared blockade targeting Saudi-linked tonnage have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed through late August 2026. Data from Kpler, Lloyd’s List Intelligence, and JMIC show daily averages fluctuating between roughly 24 and 38 vessels in the final weeks, with 72-hour rolling counts near 81 for 27–29 August implying about 27 per day. Elevated war-risk premiums, dark AIS transits, and selective rerouting around the Cape have constrained volumes well below pre-crisis norms of 60-plus daily, while limited safe-passage arrangements for certain Chinese and other flagged vessels have prevented a sharper collapse. Trader consensus reflected in the 68.5% probability on 25–29 aligns with these observed levels amid ongoing security risks.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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