OpenAI’s Codex coding service has experienced repeated disruptions in 2026, including a 56-minute full outage on September 25 affecting the web app, API, CLI, and VS Code extension, plus elevated errors on September 29 and broader platform issues on October 5 that impacted Codex alongside ChatGPT. As of October 7, status pages show ongoing partial outages in the desktop app and Work threads, prompting trader consensus around the 68.5% implied probability for another incident before year-end. These events reflect underlying challenges in scaling large language model inference for developer workflows amid high demand, with limited visibility into OpenAI’s mitigation timelines or infrastructure upgrades. Traders view the pattern of authentication failures, rate-limit resets, and cross-service degradations as evidence of persistent reliability risks in this high-usage AI coding platform.