**Traders assign an 89% probability to no additional Clacton by-election in 2026 because Nigel Farage successfully re-won the seat in the August 13 by-election he triggered himself and no procedural or political triggers point to another vacancy before year-end.** Farage resigned in July 2026 amid a parliamentary standards investigation into an undeclared £5m gift from donor Christopher Harborne (and related issues involving aide George Cottrell), then re-contested and held the constituency with 63.3% against novelty candidate Count Binface on 44.4% turnout. The major parties boycotted the poll, which featured a record 34 candidates. The standards probe resumed immediately after the result. Any adverse finding could lead to Commons suspension and a recall petition, but the commissioner’s process—including interviews and rulings—typically spans weeks to months, with further steps required for a recall. No other developments, such as health issues, party pressure, or alternative vacancies, have emerged since mid-August. With the general election not due until 2029, the timeline makes a second by-election in the remaining months of 2026 highly improbable under current conditions.