Omar Aziz (PSD) advanced to the October 25 runoff as the clear first-round leader with roughly 40.6% of valid votes, ahead of Professora Maria do Carmo (PL) at about 24.5%, after the October 4 voting. His broad coalition, prior experience as governor, and strong interior support—winning 53 of 62 municipalities—underpin trader consensus favoring his reelection bid. Maria do Carmo’s narrower base, concentrated in Manaus and a few other cities, and the absence of the incumbent Roberto Cidade (União) from the second round further shape positioning. No major late developments have altered the trajectory since the first-round results, leaving limited scope for shifts absent unforeseen events in the remaining campaign period.