Mary Peltola holds a strong edge in the 2026 Alaska Senate race under ranked-choice voting, with recent polling averages showing her ahead of incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by 1-2 points and some surveys indicating a wider margin after reallocations. The August nonpartisan primary advanced Peltola and Sullivan as the clear top two, alongside minor candidates including another Dan Sullivan and Gerald Heikes. Peltola has demonstrated particular strength among independents, women, and voters under 50, while Sullivan benefits from incumbency, Republican base support, and endorsements including from President Trump. Race ratings classify the contest as a toss-up or lean Democratic, with the November 3 general election outcome hinging on turnout patterns and final ranked-choice tallies among the four candidates on the ballot.