Mary Peltola leads the Alaska Senate race under ranked-choice voting, with recent polls showing her ahead of incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by 1–3 points in final-round projections, driven by her strong crossover appeal and consistent fundraising edge. She raised a record $17 million in the third quarter, far outpacing Sullivan, while advancing from the August top-four primary with 49.5% of the vote to his 41.4%. Sullivan benefits from Republican institutional support, including a Trump rally in Wasilla, though national dynamics and state concerns over fuel costs have kept the contest tight. Minor candidates remain negligible, leaving the outcome dependent on turnout among independents and moderate Republicans in the final weeks before November 3.