Mary Peltola leads the Alaska Senate race at 73.5% implied probability, ahead of incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan at 27.5%, with minor candidates like Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., Gerald Heikes, Dustin Darden, and others below 1%. Her edge stems from topping the August 18 nonpartisan top-four primary with 49.5% of the vote to Sullivan’s 41.4%, followed by strong September polling averages showing her ahead or tied among likely voters, including advantages with independents, women, and younger voters. Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system further boosts her position by consolidating second preferences. Sullivan faces headwinds from these trends despite his incumbency and the state’s Republican lean, while the low-probability alternatives reflect limited support in recent surveys and primary results. The November 3 general election remains weeks away.