Mary Peltola leads the Alaska Senate race under ranked-choice voting due to her strong performance in the August 2026 top-four primary, where she captured 49.5% of the vote compared to incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan’s 41.4%. Recent polls, including an AARP survey from early September, show her ahead in first-round preferences and expanding her edge after redistributions, driven by support among independents, women, and younger voters. Forecasters rate the contest a toss-up or lean Democratic, reflecting Alaska’s competitive dynamics despite its Republican presidential lean. Minor candidates on the November ballot, including another Dan Sullivan and Gerald Heikes, introduce additional ranking complexities that traders appear to weigh in Peltola’s favor.