Redistricting that restored Alabama’s 2023 congressional map after Supreme Court action shifted AL-02 toward a Republican lean, rated R+7 on the Cook Partisan Voting Index and classified Lean or Likely Republican by multiple forecasters. This structural change positions Republican nominee Rhett Marques as the frontrunner against incumbent Democrat Shomari Figures ahead of the November 3 general election. Recent campaign exchanges have centered on taxes, with Marques highlighting Figures’ votes against measures on tips, overtime, and insider trading while criticizing past state-level gas tax increases; Figures has countered by calling for debates and linking Marques to those earlier tax measures. National Republican support, including endorsements from President Trump and the NFIB, along with polling averages near 46-47% for each candidate, has sustained trader consensus around Marques’ edge while leaving room for turnout and late developments to influence the outcome.