South Africa holds the strongest position in AFCON 2027 Group D qualifying after opening with a 2-1 victory over Guinea and a 5-0 thrashing of Eritrea, reaching six points and a +6 goal difference under coach Pitso Mosimane. Guinea sits second on three points following its 1-0 win against co-host Kenya, who drew 1-1 with Eritrea and cannot claim the available qualification spot. The remaining four matchdays in November 2026 and March 2027 feature direct clashes such as South Africa versus Kenya and Guinea versus Eritrea, where South Africa’s greater squad depth and recent form give it the clearest path to finish as the highest-placed non-host. Guinea retains realistic upset potential in head-to-head results, while Eritrea and Kenya face steep challenges against stronger opposition. Trader consensus reflects these early results and relative team strengths.