Éric Zemmour’s explicit confirmation of his 2027 presidential candidacy on BFMTV in mid-September, coupled with his direct dismissal of Sarah Knafo as Reconquête’s nominee, has anchored trader expectations. Knafo, the party’s eurodeputy and vice-president, has repeatedly described Zemmour as Reconquête’s “natural candidate” while focusing her own media activity on economic issues and program-building through her recent book. These statements from both figures, alongside the party’s summer university events framing a unified leadership duo, have consolidated consensus around Zemmour’s path to the nomination. The implied probability reflects this alignment of public positions rather than any unresolved internal contest.