Ongoing Houthi-Saudi conflict in Yemen, including recent coastal advances and control claims around the strait, continues to suppress Bab el-Mandeb transits while keeping daily volumes positive. Tanker crossings averaged roughly 9 per day through early October 2026, down 26% from prior baselines, with broader vessel traffic near 30 daily amid persistent rerouting incentives. This dynamic elevates tanker earnings, war-risk premiums, and Asia-Europe freight rates as carriers weigh Cape of Good Hope alternatives against residual attack risks. Market-implied odds for a zero-transit day reflect the sustained but diminished flow, tempered by potential de-escalation signals and upcoming regional military developments that could alter risk assessments or restore volumes.