Polymarket | The World's Largest Prediction Market™

andromeda-galaxy

For everyone blindly buying YES because they saw the word 'open', here is the actual translation of the Iranian military intelligence account (@dolfiniran) laying out the exact rules for this 'open' strait: 1: Iran is forcing a mandatory 'rerouting operation' moving all traffic into its territorial waters (via north of Lark Island) to guarantee its sovereignty forever. 2: Iran determines which ships are 'commercial' and excludes enemy-linked ships. Quote: 'Passage is practically limited by Iran's discretion and will not be free. Commercial vessels passing through MUST ALSO PAY SECURITY TOLLS TO IRAN.' 3: Quote: 'Passage will take place IN COORDINATION WITH THE IRGC NAVY.' Now read the Polymarket Rules: To resolve YES, Iran must allow transit 'WITHOUT Iranian authorization/permission, PAYMENT OF FEES TO IRAN, or other Iran-imposed restrictions.' Iran’s own side is publicly boasting in Farsi that tolls are mandatory, IRGC permission is required, and they are imposing a strict new routing restriction. The restrictions are explicitly NOT lifted. You are trading a fake-out headline, while the actual legal criteria guarantees this resolves NO.

Rubski

This makes it more 50 50 then, and its a matter of time

BayesOdds

the market is based on a public agreement, meaning a public announcement to commit, not the actual committment after the announcement or the reality behind it

Thrifty-Handicap

IRGC Navy : A new order has been imposed on the Strait of Hormuz: 1. Civilian vessels are permitted to transit solely through Iran's designated route. 2. Transit of military vessels through the strait remains prohibited. 3.AIl transits require permission from the IRGC Navy. 4. This transit is in accordance with the agreement for the period of silence on the battlefield and follows the implementation of the Lebanon ceasefire.

Rubski

Lebanon ceasfire market ended on Yes

BTE

It is impossible for a sovereign nation state to reach an agreement without at least one counterparty. An agreement without restriction with nobody and everybody is ridiculous. The media cannot be the source of truth for the imaginary counterparty. Like if the BBC asks the Iranian foreign minister if transit is permitted without restriction he will answer in the context of ships flying British flags. But if Haaretz asks him the same question he will answer in the context of Israeli ships. There is zero chance British and Israeli shipping are ever granted the same level of unrestricted transit but the consensus of media reports will never get this granular in their coverage, so the absence of any stated restrictions combined with the appearance of business sets up the perfect conditions to manipulate a resolution.

andromeda-galaxy

For everyone blindly buying YES because they saw the word 'open', here is the actual translation of the Iranian military intelligence account (@dolfiniran) laying out the exact rules for this 'open' strait: 1: Iran is forcing a mandatory 'rerouting operation' moving all traffic into its territorial waters (via north of Lark Island) to guarantee its sovereignty forever. 2: Iran determines which ships are 'commercial' and excludes enemy-linked ships. Quote: 'Passage is practically limited by Iran's discretion and will not be free. Commercial vessels passing through MUST ALSO PAY SECURITY TOLLS TO IRAN.' 3: Quote: 'Passage will take place IN COORDINATION WITH THE IRGC NAVY.' Now read the Polymarket Rules: To resolve YES, Iran must allow transit 'WITHOUT Iranian authorization/permission, PAYMENT OF FEES TO IRAN, or other Iran-imposed restrictions.' Iran’s own side is publicly boasting in Farsi that tolls are mandatory, IRGC permission is required, and they are imposing a strict new routing restriction. The restrictions are explicitly NOT lifted. You are trading a fake-out headline, while the actual legal criteria guarantees this resolves NO.

Rubski

This makes it more 50 50 then, and its a matter of time

BayesOdds

the market is based on a public agreement, meaning a public announcement to commit, not the actual committment after the announcement or the reality behind it

Thrifty-Handicap

IRGC Navy : A new order has been imposed on the Strait of Hormuz: 1. Civilian vessels are permitted to transit solely through Iran's designated route. 2. Transit of military vessels through the strait remains prohibited. 3.AIl transits require permission from the IRGC Navy. 4. This transit is in accordance with the agreement for the period of silence on the battlefield and follows the implementation of the Lebanon ceasefire.

Rubski

Lebanon ceasfire market ended on Yes

BTE

It is impossible for a sovereign nation state to reach an agreement without at least one counterparty. An agreement without restriction with nobody and everybody is ridiculous. The media cannot be the source of truth for the imaginary counterparty. Like if the BBC asks the Iranian foreign minister if transit is permitted without restriction he will answer in the context of ships flying British flags. But if Haaretz asks him the same question he will answer in the context of Israeli ships. There is zero chance British and Israeli shipping are ever granted the same level of unrestricted transit but the consensus of media reports will never get this granular in their coverage, so the absence of any stated restrictions combined with the appearance of business sets up the perfect conditions to manipulate a resolution.

andromeda-galaxy

For everyone blindly buying YES because they saw the word 'open', here is the actual translation of the Iranian military intelligence account (@dolfiniran) laying out the exact rules for this 'open' strait: 1: Iran is forcing a mandatory 'rerouting operation' moving all traffic into its territorial waters (via north of Lark Island) to guarantee its sovereignty forever. 2: Iran determines which ships are 'commercial' and excludes enemy-linked ships. Quote: 'Passage is practically limited by Iran's discretion and will not be free. Commercial vessels passing through MUST ALSO PAY SECURITY TOLLS TO IRAN.' 3: Quote: 'Passage will take place IN COORDINATION WITH THE IRGC NAVY.' Now read the Polymarket Rules: To resolve YES, Iran must allow transit 'WITHOUT Iranian authorization/permission, PAYMENT OF FEES TO IRAN, or other Iran-imposed restrictions.' Iran’s own side is publicly boasting in Farsi that tolls are mandatory, IRGC permission is required, and they are imposing a strict new routing restriction. The restrictions are explicitly NOT lifted. You are trading a fake-out headline, while the actual legal criteria guarantees this resolves NO.

Rubski

This makes it more 50 50 then, and its a matter of time

BayesOdds

the market is based on a public agreement, meaning a public announcement to commit, not the actual committment after the announcement or the reality behind it

Thrifty-Handicap

IRGC Navy : A new order has been imposed on the Strait of Hormuz: 1. Civilian vessels are permitted to transit solely through Iran's designated route. 2. Transit of military vessels through the strait remains prohibited. 3.AIl transits require permission from the IRGC Navy. 4. This transit is in accordance with the agreement for the period of silence on the battlefield and follows the implementation of the Lebanon ceasefire.

Rubski

Lebanon ceasfire market ended on Yes

BTE

It is impossible for a sovereign nation state to reach an agreement without at least one counterparty. An agreement without restriction with nobody and everybody is ridiculous. The media cannot be the source of truth for the imaginary counterparty. Like if the BBC asks the Iranian foreign minister if transit is permitted without restriction he will answer in the context of ships flying British flags. But if Haaretz asks him the same question he will answer in the context of Israeli ships. There is zero chance British and Israeli shipping are ever granted the same level of unrestricted transit but the consensus of media reports will never get this granular in their coverage, so the absence of any stated restrictions combined with the appearance of business sets up the perfect conditions to manipulate a resolution.