Time 2025 Person of the Year

Artificial Intelligence

56%

Jensen Huang

17%

Artificial Intelligence

56%

Jensen Huang

17%

$33m Vol.

Fed decision in December?

50+ bps decrease

<1%

25 bps decrease

97%

50+ bps decrease

<1%

25 bps decrease

97%

$335m Vol.

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania events on December 9?

America / American 15+ times

84%

Million / Billion / Trillion 12+ times

88%

America / American 15+ times

84%

Million / Billion / Trillion 12+ times

88%

$153k Vol.

Miami Mayoral Election

Eileen Higgins

95%

Emilio Gonzalez

Eileen Higgins

95%

Emilio Gonzalez

$74k Vol.

Heat

57%

Magic

43%

Live

$5m Vol.

•NBA

Ducks

51%

Penguins

50%

Live

$890k Vol.

•NHL

Knicks

67%

Raptors

34%

$1m Vol.

•NBA• 1:30 AM

Sabres

35%

Oilers

66%

$775k Vol.

•NHL• 2:00 AM

What day will OpenAI next release a new frontier model?

December 10

December 11

67%

December 10

December 11

67%

$120k Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets December 5 - December 12, 2025?

420-439

16%

440-459

19%

420-439

16%

440-459

19%

$6m Vol.

Honduras Presidential Election

Nasry "Tito" Asfura

96%

Salvador Nasralla

Nasry "Tito" Asfura

96%

Salvador Nasralla

$20m Vol.

Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings?

100%

chance

$52k Vol.

Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?

22%

chance

$40k Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

chance

$51m Vol.

Maduro out by...?

December 31, 2025

11%

March 31, 2026

34%

December 31, 2025

11%

March 31, 2026

34%

$23m Vol.

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Kevin Hassett

71%

Kevin Warsh

15%

Kevin Hassett

71%

Kevin Warsh

15%

$21m Vol.

Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?

Kristi Noem

22%

Pete Hegseth

20%

Kristi Noem

22%

Pete Hegseth

20%

$54k Vol.

College Football Champion 2026

Ohio State

31%

Indiana

21%

Ohio State

31%

Indiana

21%

$3m Vol.

US x Venezuela military engagement by...?

December 9

<1%

December 15

14%

December 9

<1%

December 15

14%

$35m Vol.

Boxing: Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua

Jake Paul

10%

Anthony Joshua

85%

Jake Paul

10%

Anthony Joshua

85%

$790k Vol.

Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by...?

December 9

December 13

89%

December 9

December 13

89%

$1m Vol.

Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner

Ken Paxton

61%

John Cornyn

28%

Ken Paxton

61%

John Cornyn

28%

$544k Vol.

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2025?

↑ 110,000

14%

↑ 105,000

22%

↑ 110,000

14%

↑ 105,000

22%

$95m Vol.

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

Spain

16%

England

13%

Spain

16%

England

13%

$17m Vol.

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