This is a market group on whether Donald Trump will be indicted for criminal charges by the dates listed above.

Will Donald J. Trump be indicted by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Arbitrum token's price is above $1.0000 (i.e. $1.0001 or greater) one week after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

"1 week after launch" is defined as exactly 7 days (168 hours) after the token is claimable. The Arbitrum Foundation has currently announced the token will be claimable on block https://etherscan.io/block/countdown/16890400.

The resolution source for this market will be consensus of highly liquid price sources as to whether Arbitrum's token is above $1 one week after launch. If Arbitrum doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

$ARB above $1 one week after launch?

This is a market group over the price of Ethereum on March 31, 2023.

$ETH Price

ETH price on March 31?

This is a market group about whether different cryptos will touch different values.

ETH/BTC Price Touches

This is a group of prop markets for 2023 March Madness.

2023 NCAA March Madness will be played from March 14 to April 3.

March Madness Props

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Arbitrum token's price is above $10.0000 (i.e. $10.0001 or greater) one week after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

"1 week after launch" is defined as exactly 7 days (168 hours) after the token is claimable. The Arbitrum Foundation has currently announced the token will be claimable on block https://etherscan.io/block/countdown/16890400.

The resolution source for this market will be consensus of highly liquid price sources as to whether Arbitrum's token is above $10 one week after launch. If Arbitrum doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

$ARB above $10 one week after launch?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Arbitrum's token is above $5,000,000,000 1 week after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

"1 week after launch" is defined as exactly 7 days (168 hours) after the token is claimable. The Arbitrum Foundation has currently announced the token will be claimable on block https://etherscan.io/block/countdown/16890400.

Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) = Current Price x Max Supply

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of highly liquid sources of $ARB's FDV 1 week after launch. If Arbitrum doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

Arbitrum token FDV >$5b one week after launch?

This is a market group on The Republican Party nominee for U.S. 2024 Presidential Elections. 

Who will win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination?

This is a market on whether zkSync (https://zksync.io/) will both launch and airdrop a native token by June 1, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet, but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform.

Airdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition.

If this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by June 1, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.

zkSync airdrop by June 1?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump is smiling in his front-view mugshot. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This mugshot will resolve based on the first front-view mugshot released after this market's inception; if no mugshot is released by April 30, 2023 ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and/or official information from law enforcement. Determination as to whether Mr. Trump is smiling in his mugshot will be made by this market's decentralized resolver, UMA.


Will Trump smile in his mugshot?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if 1 week after the Shanghai Upgrade, the price of $ETH is at least 3% more than it was at the time of the upgrade. Otherwise the market will resolve to "No."

"1 week after the Shanghai Upgrade" is defined by exactly 7 days (168 hours) after the Shanghai Upgrade. The Shanghai upgrade refers to the the hard fork implementing EIP-4895. If the Shanghai Upgrade does not occur by December 31, 2023, the market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market is https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, namely the 1 minute candle close prices which encapsulate the Shanghai Upgrade time and 1 week after.

Will $ETH moon after Shanghai?

This is a market group about who will be the ultimate victor of the 2023 Chicago Mayoral Election.

The 2023 Chicago Mayoral Election is scheduled to take place on February 28, 2023. If no candidate receives a majority of votes, a runoff election will be held on April 4, 2023.

Who will win the Chicago Mayoral Election?

This is a market group on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will set the upper bound of the target federal funds rate after their monthly meetings.

Fed Interest Rates

Fed Interest Rates: May 2023

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the TikTok app is removed/unavailable to download from both the Apple app store and Google Play store in the United States by May 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Apple and the US Apple App Store, and Alphabet/Google and Google Play, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Tiktok be banned in the US by May 31?

This is a market group on The Democratic Party nominee for the U.S. 2024 Presidential Elections. 

Who will win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-4 has 500 billion or more parameters when released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market covers how many parameters GPT-4 has at the time of its initial release, and will resolve based on that number regardless of whether that figure is later increased or decreased.

If GPT-4 is not released by December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

GPT-4 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-4, or is a successor to GPT-3 in the way that GPT-3 was a successor to GPT-2; it cannot be branded as GPT3.5 or a version of GPT-3.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, however a consensus of credible reporting (including corroborating statements from employees of OpenAI where available) may also be used.

Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters?

This is a market group for NBA games happening on 2023-03-29

NBA: 2023-03-29

This is a market group on whether the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will have more than 30 full member states for any length of time before a certain date.

Will NATO expand by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Binance.US announces it will remove the ability to open new spot positions for a majority of its listed assets by April 30, 2023 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Binance.US announces by April 30, 2023 that they will remove the ability to open new spot positions for a majority of its listed assets, the market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether the removal occurs after that date.

Whether or not Binance.US continues to accept new accounts will have no bearing on this market's resolution. Outages due to maintenance or bugs will not suffice to resolve this market to “Yes” - it must be a deliberate announcement including removal of the ability to open new spot positions.

The primary resolution source will be information from Binance.US, Binance.US's legal representatives, Changpeng Zhao (CZ), and/or Brian Shroder, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Binance.US shut down by April 30?

US Inflation

What will U.S. inflation be from February to March 2023?

This market will immediately resolve to “$1 first” if any Binance 1 minute candle for ARB/USDT between 2023/03/28 00:01 and 2023/12/31 23:59 (inclusive) in the ET timezone has a final “Low” price of 1.0000 or lower before $ARB hits 2.0000.

This market will immediately resolve to “$2 first” if any Binance 1 minute candle for ARB/USDT between 2023/03/28 00:01 and 2023/12/31 23:59 (inclusive) in the ET timezone has a final “High” price of $2.0000 or higher before $ARB hits 1.0000.

If no Binance 1 minute candle for ARB/USDT between 2023/03/28 00:01 and 2023/12/31 23:59 (inclusive) in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price of 1.0000 or lower, or "High" price of 2.0000 or higher, this market will resolve 50-50.

The resolution source for this market is https://www.binance.com, specifically the ARB/USDT “Low" and "High" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ARB_USDT?_from=markets&theme=dark&type=spot with “1m” and “Original” selected on the top bar.

To see the “Low” and "High" prices, mouse over particular candles and look at the respective values after “Low: ” and "High: " at the top of the chart.

Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ARB/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets. If Binance cannot be used as a price source anymore for ARB/USDT (e.g. the pair doesn't exist anymore), a consensus of credible liquid price sources will be used instead.