Name: Which party wins the most seats in French Election?
Start: 2024-06-10T22:36:15.351016Z
End: 2024-07-07T12:00:00Z

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French legislative elections are are scheduled for June 30 and July 7, 2024. Elections for the National Assembly, which is the lower house of France's bicameral parliament, are conducted over 2 rounds of voting. A single representative is chosen for each of 577 constituencies, and the sum total of representatives makes up the National Assembly.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if National Rally (Rassemblement National) wins the most seats in the National Assembly as a result of the next French legislative election.

If voting in the next French legislative election does not occur by December 31, 2024, this market will resolve to "No".

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the National Rally, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French Government, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

National Rally

French legislative elections are are scheduled for June 30 and July 7, 2024. Elections for the National Assembly, which is the lower house of France's bicameral parliament, are conducted over 2 rounds of voting. A single representative is chosen for each of 577 constituencies, and the sum total of representatives makes up the National Assembly.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Renaissance wins the most seats in the National Assembly as a result of the next French legislative election.

If voting in the next French legislative election does not occur by December 31, 2024, this market will resolve to "No".

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Renaissance, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French Government, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Note: This market refers to the Renaissance Party (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance_(French_political_party), NOT the Renaissance group, 'Renaissance Deputies' (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance_group).  

Renaissance

French legislative elections are are scheduled for June 30 and July 7, 2024. Elections for the National Assembly, which is the lower house of France's bicameral parliament, are conducted over 2 rounds of voting. A single representative is chosen for each of 577 constituencies, and the sum total of representatives makes up the National Assembly.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Republicans win the most seats in the National Assembly as a result of the next French legislative election.

If voting in the next French legislative election does not occur by December 31, 2024, this market will resolve to "No".

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by The Republicans, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French Government, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The Republicans

French legislative elections are are scheduled for June 30 and July 7, 2024. Elections for the National Assembly, which is the lower house of France's bicameral parliament, are conducted over 2 rounds of voting. A single representative is chosen for each of 577 constituencies, and the sum total of representatives makes up the National Assembly.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Socialist Party (Parti socialiste) wins the most seats in the National Assembly as a result of the next French legislative election.

If voting in the next French legislative election does not occur by December 31, 2024, this market will resolve to "No".

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Socialist Party, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French Government, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Socialist Party

French legislative elections are are scheduled for June 30 and July 7, 2024. Elections for the National Assembly, which is the lower house of France's bicameral parliament, are conducted over 2 rounds of voting. A single representative is chosen for each of 577 constituencies, and the sum total of representatives makes up the National Assembly.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if La France Insoumise wins the most seats in the National Assembly as a result of the next French legislative election.

If voting in the next French legislative election does not occur by December 31, 2024, this market will resolve to "No".

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by La France Insoumise, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French Government, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

La France Insoumise

French legislative elections are are scheduled for June 30 and July 7, 2024. Elections for the National Assembly, which is the lower house of France's bicameral parliament, are conducted over 2 rounds of voting. A single representative is chosen for each of 577 constituencies, and the sum total of representatives makes up the National Assembly.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a party other than National Rally, Renaissance, The Republicans, Socialist Party or La France Insoumise wins the most seats in the National Assembly as a result of the next French legislative election.

If voting in the next French legislative election does not occur by December 31, 2024, this market will resolve to "Yes".

In the case of a tie between another party and any other for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name comes first in alphabetical order

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the various parties, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part of.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French Government, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Other

Which party wins the most seats in French Election?

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027.  This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. 

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.

If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).

Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


French election called by June 30, 2026?

The 2026 Nice municipal election is scheduled for May 15 and May 22, 2026. The Mayor of Nice, France is elected via a three-round system; if no candidate obtains an absolute majority after two rounds of voting the election proceeds to a third round which requires only a simple majority. In case of a tie, the oldest candidate wins.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.

If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Ministry of the Interior (élections.interieur.gouv.fr).

Will Christian Estrosi win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?

The 2026 Lyon municipal election is scheduled for May 15 and May 22, 2026. The Mayor of Lyon, France is elected via a three-round system; if no candidate obtains an absolute majority after two rounds of voting the election proceeds to a third round which requires only a simple majority. In case of a tie, the oldest candidate wins.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.

If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Ministry of the Interior (élections.interieur.gouv.fr).

Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?

The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Benin on January 11, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Benin National Assembly (Assemblée nationale) in this election.

If voting in the Benin parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Benin National Assembly. If a senate is added to the Benin parliament, this market will resolve according to the number of seats won in the National Assembly, excluding the Senate.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Benin government, specifically the constitutional court of Benin (Cour constitutionnelle du Bénin) (https://courconstitutionnelle.bj/fr).

Will Union Progressiste pour le Renouveau (UPR) win the most seats in the 2026 Benin parliamentary election?

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Baden-Württemberg are scheduled to take place in Baden-Württemberg on March 8, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Baden-Württemberg (Landtag) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Baden-Württemberg election for the Landtag does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Baden-Württemberg Statistischen Landesamt  (https://www.statistik-bw.de/staat-und-gesellschaft/wahlen/landtagswahl).

Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Rhineland-Palatinate are scheduled to take place in Rhineland-Palatinate on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Rhineland-Palatinate (Landtag) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Rhineland-Palatinate election for the Landtag does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Rhineland-Palatinate (Landeswahlleiter Rheinland-Pfalz https://www.wahlen.rlp.de/landtagswahl/ergebnisse)

Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.

If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament. 

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Benin government, specifically the constitutional court of Benin (Cour constitutionnelle du Bénin) (https://courconstitutionnelle.bj/en).

Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?

This is a polymarket on whether the listed club will win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 French Ligue 1. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to win the league (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 French Ligue 1 season is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be official information from French Ligue 1. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?

The 2025 election for half of the seats in Argentina's Chamber of Deputies is scheduled to be held on October 26, 2025.

This market will resolve to the political party that controls the most seats in Argentina's Chamber of Deputies as a result of the upcoming election.

If voting in the next Argentine election for the Chamber of Deputies does not occur by June 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Argentina's government (e.g. via https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php).

Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?

The 2025 Central African Republic general election is scheduled to be held on December 28, 2025, to elect the 140 members of the National Assembly (CAR’s unicameral parliament).

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the most seats in the Central African Republic National Assembly as a result of the next Central African parliamentary election.

If initial voting in the next Central African parliamentary election does not occur by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market may remain open to consider any second-round votes held to determine winners in individual single-member constituencies, as long as the remaining undecided seats can still change which party wins the most seats overall, or maximally until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, after which the market will resolve based on the results available at that time.

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Government of the Central African Republic, specifically the National Elections Authority (https://www.ane-rca.org/).

Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.

A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.

If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.

This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.

The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Macron call a referendum by December 31?

On September 9, French President Emmanuel Macron named Sébastien Lecornu as the new French Prime Minister. He resigned on October 6 after his cabinet faced severe opposition. On October 10, President Emmanuel Macron reappointed him as Prime Minister, tasking him with forming a new government.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sébastien Lecornu is no longer serving as Prime Minister of France for any length of time between December 4, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Lecornu  out as French PM by December 31, 2026?

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)


Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Macron out by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

If no winner is announced by November 4, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Republican Party win the CA-22 House seat?

On March 31, President of the French National Rally parliamentary group Marine Le Pen was sentenced to 4 years in prison, 2 of which are suspended, and fined €100,000. Additionally, she has been banned from running for office for 5 years. She is expected to appeal the case. You can read more about that here: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyq40yz70qo

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Marine Le Pen receives a reduced sentence as a result of a formal appeal decision by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

 A reduced sentence includes any official change that lessens the severity or length of the original sentence, such as a shorter prison term, a reduced fine, or restoration of Le Pen's eligibility to run for public office.

The reduced sentence must apply to the referenced case, where she was convicted of "Abuse of Public Funds".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.



Le Pen sentence reduced in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-27 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

If no winner is announced by November 4, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Democratic Party win the CA-27 House seat?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025.

This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.

If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).

Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.

House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.

If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.

Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party is a part of the first Dutch government formed after the 2025 general election scheduled to take place October 29. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister to the ruling government. Parties that merely provide external support (“gedoogsteun”) without holding ministerial positions will not qualify.

This market may resolve once the first government is officially announced and sworn in by the monarch, with ministers appointed under "non-caretaker circumstances."

If no government is formed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if another election is called without a government being formed this market will resolve to "No". 

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official announcements from the governing coalition; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will D66 be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, the Republican Party becomes the favorite in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?tid=1764045739181) for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The Republican Party will be considered to have become the favorite for any four-hour period if it is ahead of the Democratic Party in more individual minutes than the Democratic Party is ahead of the Republican Party during a qualifying time period.

A tie in the number of minutes will not qualify.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the “Which party will win the House in 2026?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/will-the-republicans-flip-the-democrats-for-the-2026-us-house-elections-by or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

2026 U.S. House election: Republicans flip the Democrats by March 31?

The 2025 Dutch general election is scheduled to take place on October 29, 2025.

This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2025 Dutch general election.

If the next Dutch Government after the election is not announced by October 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No Coalition by October 31".

A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister.

This market may resolve once the first government is officially announced and sworn in by the monarch, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.

The following parties will be to be considered for this market: PVV, GroenLinks–PvdA, VVD, CDA, D66, JA21. All other parties (including but not limited to SP, BBB, NSC, DENK, PvdD, FvD, SGP, CU, and Volt) will not be considered. 

Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option (along with any other parties), that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition.

For example:

If the governing coalition includes GL–PvdA + VVD + CDA + JA21, but no option explicitly lists those four together, the market will resolve to “VVD + CDA + JA21”.

If the governing coalition includes PVV + VVD + CDA + D66, the option “PVV + VVD + CDA + D66” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PVV + VVD + CDA” will resolve to “No".

If the governing coalition does not match any listed option (e.g. the governing coalition is D66 + JA21) this market will resolve to “Other”. 

In the event that multiple market options each contain an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed coalition which received the greater number of valid votes.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of the Netherlands.

Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Portuguese election?

A second-round presidential election is scheduled to be held in Chile on December 14, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the first candidate Franco Parisi announces that he will vote for or endorses for the listed election, within this market's timeframe.

If Franco Parisi endorses a candidate not listed in this market, it will resolve to "Other".

If Franco Parisi does not announce an endorsement by December 13 at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "None".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Franco Parisi or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Franco Parisi's endorsement.

Will Franco Parisi endorse no candidate for President of Chile?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives.

If voting in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Senate.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Will PLC win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in the Central African Republic on December 28, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote outright, a second round of elections will be scheduled.

This market will resolve to the candidate who wins this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Government of the Central African Republic, specifically the National Elections Authority (Autorité nationale des élections or ANE on https://www.ane-rca.org/). 

If the election outcome is ambiguous and the information from the specified resolution source is not definitive, this market will resolve to the candidate who takes office the following term.

Will Faustin-Archange Touadéra win the 2025 Central African Republic presidential election?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Colombian Senate.

If voting in the Colombian Senate election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Senate.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?

This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.

A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. 

If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. 

This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (mayor or magistrate) elections for Taiwan’s major special municipalities, counties, and cities during these elections.

A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.

Taiwan’s local governments include the following cities, special municipalities, and counties:

Cities/special municipalities (mayoral elections): Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Taichung City, Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, Keelung City, Hsinchu City, Chiayi City

Counties (magistrate elections): Yilan County, Hsinchu County, Miaoli County, Changhua County, Nantou County, Yunlin County, Chiayi County, Pingtung County, Taitung County, Hualien County, Penghu County, Lienchiang County, Kinmen County

Only elections for the listed cities, special municipalities or counties will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.

In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant head of local government elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose English name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group.

Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections aren’t known by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party, the Democratic Party becomes the favorite in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026?tid=1764796601244) for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The Democratic Party will be considered to have become the favorite for any four-hour period if it is ahead of the Republican Party in more individual minutes than the Republican Party is ahead of the Democratic Party during a qualifying time period.

A tie in the number of minutes will not qualify.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the “Which party will win the Senate in 2026?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-senate-election-democrats-flip-republicans-by or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

2026 U.S. Senate Election: Democrats flip Republicans by March 31?

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Costa Rica on 1 February 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Costa Rican Legislative Assembly.

If voting in the Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Legislative Assembly.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Costa Rica's Supreme Electoral Tribunal (Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones) (https://www.tse.go.cr/index.html).

Will PPSO win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on January 18, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the first-round turnout percentage, calculated as “Total votantes” divided by “Total inscritos”

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the election aren’t known by May 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.  

This market will resolve based on the result of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be at least 44%?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Costa Rica on February 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the Costa Rican Legislative Assembly in this election.

If voting in the Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between this party and any other for the second most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Legislative Assembly.

This market will resolve based on the election results as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Costa Rica's Supreme Electoral Tribunal (Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones) (https://www.tse.go.cr/index.html).

Will PENAC win the second most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.

Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.

If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.

Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that receives the highest number of valid votes in the first round of this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the first round of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

South Korean local elections are scheduled to be held on June 3, 2026. 

This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (Mayor or Governor) elections for South Korea’s upper-level local governments during these elections.

A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.

South Korea’s upper-level local governments include the following cities and provinces:

Cities (mayoral elections): Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangju, Daejeon, Ulsan, & Sejong

Provinces (governor elections): Gyeonggi, North Chungcheong, South Chungcheong,  North Jeolla, South Jeolla, North Gyeongsang, South Gyeongsang, Jeju, & Gangwon.

A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.

In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of head of local government elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose English name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group.

Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 South Korean local elections aren’t known by January 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Korean local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.

Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?

This market will resolve based on the number of the following five elections won by the Democratic Party, all scheduled for November 4, 2025. Each event will count as one Democratic win if it occurs:

- Democrats win the Virginia Governor's elections
- Democrats win the Virginia House of Delegates
- Democrats win the New Jersey Governor elections
- Mamdani wins the New York City Mayor election
- California referendum "Proposition 50" passes

Any other elections occurring in November 2025 that are not explicitly listed here will have no bearing on this market’s outcome.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of ambiguity, the market will resolve according to official results published by the jurisdiction’s election authority.

This market will remain open until the official certified results of the listed elections are published. In the case of a tie, the winner determined by the jurisdiction’s official tiebreak mechanism will prevail.

Will Democrats win five elections in Nov?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Maine U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

The 2026 midterm elections for the US House of Representatives is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the House of Representatives for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Initial seat counts will be based on the composition of the US House of Representatives as of November 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

This market's resolution will be solely based on the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives for any state won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election. The loss of particular district seats will not count towards a resolution for this market; only the total number of seats held by the Republican Party in a given state will be considered. (e.g. The loss of a particular district's seat by the Republican Party followed by the gain of another district's seat would not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".)

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

For the purposes of this market, states won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. This list is determined by the winner of the electoral votes for each state in the 2024 Presidential election. In states such as Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are allocated separately by congressional districts as well as to the statewide winner, only the electoral votes allocated to the statewide winner are considered.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Mississippi U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea on December 28, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Guinean government, including the Guinean Supreme Court (Cour suprême), the Guinean Constitutional Court (Cour Constitutionnelle), or the newly established Directorate General of Elections (Direction générale des élections or DGE). If these listed sources disagree, they will be prioritized in the following order: Supreme Court, Constitutional Court, Directorate General of Elections.

Will Mamady Doumbouya win the 2025 Guinean presidential election?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if an America Party candidate wins a U.S. federal congressional or state gubernatorial election by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 

The candidate may appear on the ballot as “America Party,” “Independent,” or with no party listed, as long as they have formally declared their affiliation with the America Party.

Expressions of interest, financial donations, or statements of ideological sympathy will not alone qualify unless accompanied by a clear claim of party affiliation.

Candidates listed on the ballot as members of another established party (e.g., Democrats, Republicans, Libertarians, etc.) will not qualify, even if they express support for or claim affiliation with the American Party or Elon Musk.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Which party wins the most seats in French Election?

National Rally
$522,450 Vol.
Yes

Renaissance
$96,067 Vol.
No

The Republicans
$61,155 Vol.
No

Socialist Party
$41,586 Vol.
No

La France Insoumise
$58,942 Vol.
No

Other
$137,288 Vol.
No

Market Context

Which party wins the most seats in French Election?

Rules

Which party wins the most seats in French Election?

Market Context

Which party wins the most seats in French Election?

About

Related

Which party wins the most seats in French Election?

National Rally$522,450 Vol.Yescircle check

Renaissance$96,067 Vol.Nocircle xmark

The Republicans$61,155 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Socialist Party$41,586 Vol.Nocircle xmark

La France Insoumise$58,942 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Other$137,288 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

Which party wins the most seats in French Election?

Rules

Which party wins the most seats in French Election?

Market Context

Which party wins the most seats in French Election?

About

Related

National Rally
$522,450 Vol.
Yes

Renaissance
$96,067 Vol.
No

The Republicans
$61,155 Vol.
No

Socialist Party
$41,586 Vol.
No

La France Insoumise
$58,942 Vol.
No

Other
$137,288 Vol.
No